US Treasury projects $618 billion borrowing for fourth quarter of 2026
The federal government expects to end December with a cash balance of $850 billion, according to a report by Reuters.
The US Treasury on Monday projected that federal borrowing will reach $618 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to a Reuters report published by The Economic Times. This figure is $10 billion less than the estimate provided in August, as a larger starting cash balance helped balance out weaker projected net cash flows.
When the benefit of the increased cash cushion is removed, borrowing requirements are $24 billion higher than the previous estimate. The Treasury expects its cash balance to reach $850 billion by the end of December.
For the first quarter of 2027, the Treasury has projected $800 billion in borrowing, based on an assumption that the end-March cash balance will be $1 trillion. In the third quarter, the government borrowed $742 billion and ended September with a cash balance of $984 billion.
Investors are expected to monitor the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday for signs of changes to auction sizes. In August, the Treasury stated it was evaluating possible adjustments to the sizes of coupon and floating-rate note auctions.
The Treasury has previously increased the maximum size of its longer-dated debt buybacks to $6 billion per operation from $2 billion to support liquidity in the government bond market.
