Nifty could reach 27,000 in 12 months, says Choice Wealth strategist
Dheeraj Gaur expects a Nifty target of 26,500–27,000 but warns that oil shocks could trigger volatility.
Dheeraj Gaur, Chief Investment Strategy Officer at Choice Wealth, expects the Nifty to reach 26,500–27,000 over the next 12 months, according to a Mint report. He noted that while India's fundamentals remain resilient, the market faces risks from geopolitical tensions and crude oil prices.
Gaur's 12-month base case also includes a Sensex target of 86,000–88,000. This projection assumes corporate earnings sustain low-to-mid-teens growth and a modest re-rating as geopolitical concerns ease. However, he warned that a sustained oil shock could push the Nifty down to 21,000–21,500.
The strategist highlighted that the Nifty is currently trading near 19 times earnings, which is below its long-term average of 22–23 times. He stated that the index is trading 12–15 per cent below its five- and 10-year average valuations.
External risks include the US–Iran conflict, which has kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Gaur mentioned that a renewed escalation pushing Brent above $110–120 a barrel could worsen inflation. Other risks include foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, a stronger dollar, and US midterm election uncertainty.
Gaur suggested that the best risk-reward lies in large-cap stocks. He also identified capital markets, financial services, the oil and energy value chain, and healthcare as sectors that could outperform over the next 6–12 months.