Strong El Niño does not always guarantee poor Indian monsoon rainfall
A strong El Niño event in 1997 resulted in nearly normal rainfall despite an initial prediction of an 8 per cent deficit.
A strong El Niño event does not necessarily lead to a deficit in the Indian monsoon, according to a report by The Hindu.
During the summer of 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century formed in the Pacific Ocean. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a monsoon rainfall deficit of 8 per cent below the average, rainfall levels were nearly normal by the end of September that year.
A “ferocious” El Niño is currently taking shape and is expected to peak in December. This follows a 2026 southwest monsoon that ended nearly 13 per cent below the long-term average of 87 cm.
During that 2026 season, East and Northeast India experienced their driest season since records began in 1901.