US stock futures fall as prediction markets suggest Democratic sweep
Early midterm vote counts and prediction markets indicate a rising chance of Democratic victories in Congress, according to Moneycontrol.
US equity-index futures declined and the US dollar weakened on Tuesday as early midterm vote counts and prediction markets indicated a potential Democratic victory in Congress, according to Moneycontrol.
S&P 500 Index contracts dropped 0.3 per cent, reversing an earlier gain of 0.5 per cent, while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 0.6 per cent. The US dollar lost ground against most Group-of-10 peers, and the 10-year Treasury note yield decreased by four basis points to 4.92 per cent.
Prediction market Kalshi is pricing a 97 per cent probability of Democrats taking the House of Representatives and an 86 per cent chance of winning the Senate. Andrew Ticehurst, a senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney, said early headlines and prediction markets suggest a rising probability of a blue wave.
Ticehurst noted that such a scenario is generally viewed as negative for the dollar and positive for US Treasuries. In Asia trading, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 per cent, though South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 1 per cent.
In corporate news, Meta Platforms Inc. raised $15 billion through a US dollar bond sale. Meanwhile, Nexperia BV has filed a lawsuit against its owner, Wingtech Technology Co., seeking more than $2 billion in damages.
Palantir Technologies Inc. issued a quarterly outlook suggesting a possible slowdown in sales growth. Additionally, BMW AG lowered its profit forecast for the second time in five months, and Walt Disney Co. is reportedly moving toward thousands of job cuts.
